Harris made major gains across the sun belt; He’s leading Trump in AZ, NC

Biden’s diminishing political standing in the Sun Belt narrowed his path to victory to win Pennsylvania and the upper Midwest battlegrounds with virtually no margin for error.

But according to the Times/Siena polls, Harris has no such problem.

In the four states that connect the Sun Belt, both Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent support each among likely voters.

Harris held the lead in Arizona and North Carolina, beating Trump by five points (50% to 45%) in the former state and by two points (49% to 47%) in the latter state among likely voters .

In Nevada, Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%), and in Georgia, the former president held a four-point lead (50% to 46%) over the vice president.

A Harris victory in Arizona would be significant because Trump has long made immigration one of his signature issues. But the vice president leaned on her background as a prosecutor to make her case to swing voters in the border state — while highlighting the former president’s efforts to shake up a bipartisan immigration bill that collapsed in Congress earlier this year.

Another notable takeaway from the polls was Harris’ stronger standing with young, black and female voters.

In the Sun Belt battlegrounds, Harris held a 16-point lead (55% to 39%) among likely voters between the ages of 18 and 29, a critical bloc that has largely been cold on the campaign trail. re-electing Biden on issues like the economy and the Gaza conflict. .

While Biden was also winning over black voters, Harris’ 84 percent share with this critical group bolsters his position in the Sun Belt and especially in North Carolina — which hasn’t supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

In North Carolina, Harris boasts an 86 percent to 9 percent lead over Trump among black voters.

And among women in Sun Belt states, Harris held a 14-point lead (55% to 41%) over Trump. The economy and reproductive rights are proving to be powerful issues that could widen what is expected to be a significant gender gap. (Male voters generally supported Trump by a 15-point margin in the poll.)

The development comes just days before the start of the Democratic National Convention and Harris’ widely anticipated speech, about a month after Biden’s departure.

With most voters familiar with Harris but not as familiar with her positions on a number of issues — in large part due to the condensed nature of her presidential run — the vice president’s speech could be a critical turning point for the campaign them. And it will come as Democrats aim for Harris to receive an opt-out after the convention, which could bolster momentum for her campaign ahead of the planned Sept. 10 presidential debate and the start of early voting in a number of critical states that month .