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Shake Shack has overtaken Chipotle in the past 5 years. This chart 1 shows why Chipotle is still crushing Shake Shack in the stock market

Shake Shack may finally be positioning itself for stronger stock price returns.

On August 1, popular burger chain Shake Shack (SHAK -1.94%) reported financial results for the second fiscal quarter, showing a 16% increase in revenue. That was almost as good as an 18% increase in revenue Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -2.78%) reported in its second quarter.

This is normal. The two chains have grown at a similar rate over the past five years, with Shake Shack slightly outpacing Chipotle. But if you invested $1,000 in Chipotle stock five years ago, you’d have nearly $3,200 now. If you had done the same with Shake Shack stock, you would only have $1,100 today.

Revenue growth is one of the most important things to look for when investing in stocks, but it’s far from the only thing. And a chart shows why Shake Shack’s growth hasn’t enriched its shareholders the way it has for Chipotle’s investors.

The only chart you have to see to believe

When companies initially go public, they sell shares to investors to raise capital. But the number of shares changes after that. Companies can issue new shares to raise more money or pay employees, which increases the number of shares outstanding. And these companies can also use profits to buy back shares from investors, which reduces the number of shares outstanding.

For its part, Chipotle has reduced its share count modestly over the past five years, while Shake Shack’s share count has risen dramatically. Therefore, while the latter’s income more than doubled, his income per action it is only about 50%.

CMG Revenue Chart (TTM).

Data by YCharts.

There’s no way to know for sure, but if Shake Shack’s stock numbers had held steady or even declined over the past five years, I’d bet that the stock would outperform S&P 500 over this time. After all, his growth has been stellar. But the increase in share count diluted shareholder value, canceling out much of the positive effect on the top line.

What about the next five years?

The good news for Shake Shack shareholders is that things could be different in the next five years. The company offers stock-based compensation to managers to better align them with the company. But much of what happened in the past was tied to a stimulus plan passed in 2015, and things are slowing down.

Last quarter, Shake Shack’s diluted share count was actually down year-over-year. Of course, management didn’t reduce the number of shares with share buybacks. Rather, some potential compensation was lost.

Still, this suggests that Shake Shack is starting to turn the corner on that issue, meaning its earnings-per-share growth could soon more closely resemble its actual revenue growth. It could be a big deal.

As mentioned, revenue growth is important for stocks. Shake Shack is experiencing significant growth — opening nearly 80 new locations in the past year, many of which are company-owned. Revenues could continue to grow at a double-digit rate for years.

Furthermore, Shake Shack is profitable, another important factor in how a stock performs. The company had operating income of nearly $11 million in its fiscal second quarter. And with continued investments in technology to keep labor costs under control, that number should grow.

To be clear, I personally am not ready to give Shake Shack the benefit of the doubt. Investors can afford to be patient for now, waiting to see if recent trends continue. But I’m willing to watch the business more closely going forward, as the company’s growth may finally be on the verge of better rewarding shareholders in the coming years.

Jon Quast has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2024 $52 put on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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