Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk defied NATO predictions

But last week, Ukraine launched a surprise attack in Russia’s Kursk region, catching Russian forces off guard and forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to divert some troops from Ukraine.

After months of relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory, it appeared that Ukraine would be condemned to a slow and relentless retreat into eastern Ukraine.

But the new push in Kursk will serve as a timely reminder to international allies that the outcome of the war is not a foregone conclusion.

This is especially important ahead of the upcoming US elections, which Ukraine is very aware of, Hamilton said.

If Trump wins, there is a serious threat to cut military aid to Ukraine, with the former president saying in June that he would immediately “get it sorted.”

Therefore, Kiev is probably trying to put itself in the best possible position should it have to enter into negotiations with Russia.

“Politically, the purpose of the operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations,” Jack Watling, senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in The Guardian.

“The Ukrainian government wants to make sure that if it has to go into this process, it has things that Russia wants to trade for concessions,” he added. “The Ukrainian military therefore needs to take and hold a sizable chunk of Russian land for the duration of potential negotiations.”

Hamilton said Ukraine’s new strategy demonstrates its ability to conduct complex operations involving a range of military assets, strengthening its position on the battlefield, showing it can actively shape the conflict.

How long such an operation can continue remains to be seen, however.

The ability to maintain momentum depends on the continued replenishment of its forces, something that remains uncertain, Hamilton added.

However, the incursion may have sparked a shift in Western politics.

While the West has been reluctant to allow Ukraine to strike Russia, a number of members have signaled their support for Ukraine’s moves at Kursk – including Germany, which has often been reluctant to risk provoking Putin.

“Ukraine has the right to self-defense enshrined in international law,” Germany’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Politico earlier this month. “This is not limited to its own territory.”

The Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment of the conflict on Saturday that it was “too early to assess the results and operational significance of Ukraine’s incursion into Russia”.

But he added that because of the scale of the conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Kursk advance and Russia’s operations in eastern Ukraine were unlikely to be “decisive military operations” that would win the war.