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US stocks steady as countdown to Jackson Hole begins

US stocks were broadly steady on Monday after posting their best week in a year as investors began counting down to a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole that could reset rate cut expectations.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% to hover near record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained almost 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 0.1%.

Stocks are set to consolidate last week’s strong gains as a measure of calm returns to a market previously whipsawed by worries about a potential recession. Last week’s rally recouped the losses stacked up in an early August sell-off as Wall Street fretted about cracks in the economy — concerns that have since been eased by encouraging inflation and consumer spending data.

Focus is already turning to Powell’s speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium on Friday in a quiet week for economic data. As confidence in a “soft landing” for the economy grows — Goldman Sachs now sees a lower likelihood of recession — the question for investors isn’t whether the Fed will lower interest rates in September but by how much.

As of Monday morning, traders were pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will reduce rates by 0.25% at that meeting and 28% odds for a 0.50% cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But the release on Wednesday of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting could sway those bets.

Meanwhile, investors will also keep a watchful eye on the Democratic National Convention, which kicks off on Monday and could bring more insight into what to expect from presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

Live2 updates

  • Gold pauses after touching all-time highs

    Gold took a breather on Monday after touching record highs last week on the expectation of a Fed rate cut this year.

    Spot gold retreated slightly after surpassing the $2,500 level for the first time last Friday. Meanwhile, gold futures (GC=F) fell 0.2% on Monday to hover near $2,530 per ounce.

    The precious metal has rallied this year amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve will start its rate cut cycle soon.

    Prices have also risen as central banks have continued to add to their gold reserves.

  • Stocks hold steady as countdown to Jackson Hole begins, more earnings from retailers on deck

    US stocks gained slightly on Monday after posting their best week in a year as investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole, with Wall Street set to receive further glimpses of the state of the consumer amid a slew of retail earnings.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) opened flat but held near record highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also rose above the flat line. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 0.1%.

    Investors will pay close attention to any signals as to rate cut expectations when Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.

    Wall Street will get further insights on the health of the consumer this week as Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Macy’s (M), The TJX Companies (TJX), and BJ’s (BJ) Wholesale Club post quarterly results. The reports follow encouraging inflation and consumer spending data.

    Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention kicks off on Monday, which could give investors more insight into what to expect from presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

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