Will Iran risk sanctions by selling missiles to Russia?

A new one report says Iran is preparing to export Fath-360 and Ababil short-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia and has begun training Russian personnel to use the former.

There have been several reports since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 alleging that Iran was preparing to sell or had already supplied Russia with ballistic missiles. None of the reports have been confirmed by US or Ukrainian and Iranian officials continue to deny that it has armed or plans to arm Russia.

Analysts who spoke to RFE/RL were unsure about the latest report, but added that if confirmed, it would provide an advantage to Russia’s war effort and have both benefits and pitfalls for Iran.

of Russia use of North Korean ballistic missiles briefly eased concerns that Moscow would turn to Iran to replenish its inventory.

“However, expanded battlefield demands could strain North Korea’s supply capabilities,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.

She said Moscow could seek Iranian ballistic missiles as a strategy to “reduce its dependence on North Korea,” which would allow Russia to play against Pyongyang and Tehran, “potentially maximizing its strategic benefits.”

A visit to Tehran on August 6 by the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, who was previously the country’s defense minister, fueled suspicions that Moscow was trying to purchase Iranian missiles.

From drones to missiles

Since the early months of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been suspected of using Iranian-made Shahed and Mohajer-6 drones, many of which have been found shot down in Ukrainian cities and battlefields. Iran initially denied arming Russia before capitulating and admitted it had supplied “a limited number of drones” to Moscow before the war.

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Tehran continues to deny that its drones are being used by Russia against Ukraine. That hasn’t stopped the United States and the EU from imposing PENALTIES on Iran for helping Moscow.

Grajewski said Iranian drones “had a comparative advantage over Russian ones in terms of technology, production and operational use.” But with ballistic missiles, “it’s about quantity, not quality.”

In addition to the reputational boost that would come from supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran would also gain significant knowledge of how the Fath-360 and Ababil perform in combat.

In addition, Grejewski said, “operational use and any Russian modification could help Iran in some areas where its missiles tend to be lacking.”

Earlier reports suggested that Russia was tracking Iran’s Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar short-range ballistic missiles. But exporting them to Russia would put Iran in violation of the missile technology control regime (MTCR) and payload thresholds, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

However, Fath-360 and Ababil are below the thresholds of 300 km and 500 kg set by the MTCR.

“However, this does not mean they (CRBMs) should be ignored, as they help Russia preserve its own domestically produced long-range strike assets and are further signs of a deepening Russian-Iranian relationship,” Taleblu argued .

Taking risks to grow the partnership

Non-violation of the MTCR would further draw the ire of Western nations if Iran ends up supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.

UN restrictions on Iran’s missile imports and exports expired in October 2023, but the United States and the E3 (Britain, France and Germany) as well as the wider EU have extended ballistic missile sanctions against Iran.

“E3 has been resolute in their warnings to Iran,” Grajewski said. “The supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would complicate any solution with Iran’s nuclear program.”

Talks on restoring the nuclear deal have stalled, and the deal is set to expire in October 2025, so Iran could look to strengthen ties with Russia if prospects for relaunching the accord fade.

Iran participated in the annual Russian military exhibition held in Moscow from August 12-14 and showcased some of the latest military technology, including the Mohajer-10 drone – the updated version of the Mohajer-6 that Russia used it in Ukraine. .

But Grajewski argued that more notable was the presence in Moscow of Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, a deputy commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is responsible for the operational command and control of Iran’s armed forces.

Taleblu said Iran received a combination of things for arming Russia with drones, including cash and gold, and argued that “these vectors of cooperation are likely to deepen.”

“Iran intends to move from junior partner status to Russia, which is one of the reasons why arms cooperation between the two on Ukraine is unlikely to be compartmentalized,” he added.

Via RFE/RL

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