Global nuclear power is growing modestly, but challenges remain

In June, the Energy Institute launched 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy. The analysis provides a comprehensive picture of supply and demand for major energy sources at the country level. Each year I write a series of articles covering the Review’s findings.

In previous articles, we discussed:

Today I will discuss trends in nuclear energy.

Overview

In 2023, nuclear power production increased by 2%, despite a slight decrease in total installed capacity. However, it remained 58 terawatt-hours below pre-COVID 2019 levels and 2% below the peak output recorded in 2006.

Global nuclear consumption 1965-2023. Robert Rapier

In Europe, nuclear output fell 1% as the recovery of France’s nuclear fleet after extended outages in 2022 was offset by Germany shutting down its last three remaining reactors earlier in the year.

China continues to dominate nuclear capacity expansion, accounting for about 60% of all new additions since 2000. Notably, China began commercial operations of its Small Modular Reactor (SMR) demonstration project in late 2023, marking a world first with Generation the IV. technology and advanced safety systems.

In Japan, nuclear output rose by nearly 50% in 2023 as the country gradually brought reactors back into service after the Fukushima incident in 2011. Meanwhile, US nuclear output remained flat, yet equaled the combined outputs of China and France , which have the second and third largest nuclear fleets respectively.

Top manufacturers

Top 10 nuclear producers in 2023. Robert Rapier

“Change” reflects the percentage change from 2023.

The Top 10 list is the same as in 2022, except for Japan and Ukraine swapping places. The US remains the global leader in nuclear power production, but China’s 10-year growth rate is 14.6%, compared to -0.2% in the US.

China and Japan are the only countries in the Top 10 with a double-digit growth rate over the past decade. Pakistan, ranked 18th globally among nuclear producers, also had a double-digit 10-year growth rate, as did the Middle East in general.

Historical and regional context

From a modest 25.5 terawatt-hours in 1965, global nuclear power production has grown to 2737.7 terawatt-hours by 2023. Early adopter leaders included the United States, the United Kingdom and France, with the US maintaining its position by the largest producer, producing 816.2 terawatt-hours in 2023, nearly 30% of the global total.

France experienced a dramatic increase in nuclear power production in the late 1970s and 1980s, becoming the second largest producer worldwide. China’s nuclear program has experienced explosive growth since the early 2000s, from zero to become the third largest producer by 2023.

Japan’s nuclear power output rose steadily until the 2011 Fukushima disaster caused a sharp decline, though it has partially recovered since then. Instead, Germany has steadily reduced its nuclear power output as part of a phase-out policy.

The data also reflect geopolitical changes, showing the transition from the USSR to individual countries, with Russia emerging as a major producer. Recent years have seen new entrants to nuclear power, including Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Belarus.

Regional differences are evident, with North America and Europe being early adopters, while Asia has seen the most growth in recent years. Many developing countries, particularly in Africa and South America, have not adopted nuclear power, South Africa being a notable exception.

These trends illustrate how the nuclear power generation landscape has been influenced by technological developments, political decisions and major events such as the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters.

By Robert Rapier

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