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WTI remains depressed below $73.00, looks vulnerable to two-week low

  • WTI is struggling to gain traction and is languishing near a two-week low hit on Tuesday.
  • A surprise rise in US crude inventories and easing tensions in the Middle East weigh on oil prices.
  • China’s economic woes are keeping bulls on edge and acting as a headwind for the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil prices are trading slightly downtrend below the $73.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and remain within striking distance of the two-week low hit the previous day.

Concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East eased after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a proposal to address disagreements blocking the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Apart from that, a surprise increase in US crude inventories continues to weigh on crude oil prices.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 347,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 16, according to American Petroleum Institute figures released Tuesday, pointing to an oversupply in the world’s biggest oil consumer. This comes on top of concerns about a slowdown in China – the world’s biggest oil importer – and continues to act as a headwind for the commodity.

Meanwhile, investors remain concerned about ongoing clashes between Israel and Hamas, despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations. In addition, Hamas said the US-backed link proposal submitted at the end of Doha talks on Friday was a reversal from what the sides agreed to in early July, keeping investors on their toes.

Apart from this, the prevailing selling trend in the US dollar (USD), fueled by growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, could support crude oil prices and help limit subsequent losses. Traders now look to official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later today.

The focus, however, remains on geopolitical developments and the publication of the minutes of the July FOMC meeting. The latter, along with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, should provide clues about the path of US central bank policy. This, in turn, will drive the USD and provide further impetus to crude oil prices.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries at meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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