Jobs in focus after return By Reuters

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The markets’ glittering recovery from the early August sell-off hit an air pocket, with Asian shares lower on Wednesday and a small drop on Tuesday, falling one day short of matching a 20-year winning streak.

A yen to 145.5 to the dollar and gains hurt sentiment in Japanese stocks and news that Walmart (NYSE: ) is looking to sell its stake in JD (NASDAQ: ).com sent shares of the Chinese online retailer lower in Hong Kong , after a big jump to an upbeat earnings report.

Market momentum is more or less stumbling where the sell-off began two weeks ago and brings us full circle on the economic outlook: waiting for data to gauge recession risk and watching polls to gauge the US presidential race.

Former US President Barack Obama returned to the national stage on Tuesday night to boost his longtime Democratic ally Kamala Harris in her 11th presidential bid against Republican Donald Trump.

Fed minutes are due later on Wednesday, along with revisions to US labor force data. Goldman Sachs expects a downward revision in the range of 600,000 to 1 million jobs added, although it says that would overstate the weakness in the labor market.

Much will also depend on the US jobs report due on September 6, with the labor market more focused now that inflation appears to be easing.

Rates markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point US interest rate cut for September and a nearly 1/3 chance of a 50 basis point cut, driving the dollar steadily lower on almost everything.

Gold hit records above $2,500 an ounce this week and the euro is in uncharted territory at $1.11.

Some analysts see risks if the labor market looks stronger than expected or if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t seem very comfortable in a speech he’s due to give in Jackson Hole on Friday.

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, derived from conditions in the stock, options and credit markets, returned to neutral from “extreme fear” just a week ago. But investors seem to want new data to validate the benign outlook before plunging in again.

Asian data on Wednesday showed Japanese exports fell short of expectations, while South Korean exports for the first 20 days of August rose 18.5 percent from a year earlier.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economy: Revisions to US employment data

Politics: The Minutes of the US Federal Reserve