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XAG/USD nears $29.50 on caution ahead of Fed minutes

  • The price of silver is moving sideways as traders take a cautious stance ahead of the FOMC minutes for the July policy decision.
  • The downside to non-yielding silver could be limited as the Fed could cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024.
  • Safe haven Silver could face challenges as US ‘bridging proposal’ could bridge gaps between Israel and Hamas.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating around $29.50 per troy ounce during European hours as traders assess the upcoming release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The minutes of the Fed’s July policy decision meeting could provide crucial insights into the direction of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Additionally, traders will likely shift their focus to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech in Jackson Hole on Friday.

The downside risk to non-yielding silver is expected to be limited as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver 100 basis points (bps) in interest rate cuts by the end of this year. However, there is a split among market analysts on whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting.

CME’s FedWatch tool suggests markets are now pricing in nearly 67.5% odds for a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut at its September meeting, down from 76% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 32.5% from 53.0% a week earlier.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday expressed caution about making any policy changes, citing rising inflation risks. Bowman warned that overreacting to individual data points could undermine progress already made, according to Reuters.

Silver’s safe-haven appeal is expected to wane as tensions in the Middle East ease. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has concluded a trip to the region aimed at facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza. According to Reuters, Blinken, along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, raised hopes of a US “bridging proposal” that could bridge the gap between the warring sides in the 10-month war.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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