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It stands around 145.20 minutes post-Fed release

  • USD/JPY is steady as Fed minutes hint at easing, pushing US 10-year yields lower.
  • Selling momentum persists; RSI indicates more downside potential.
  • Below 145.00 targets 143.61, then 141.69; resistance at 146.00 could extend to 146.92, 149.39.

USD/JPY pared some of its earlier gains after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting suggested the US central bank could ease policy as soon as September. As a result, US Treasury yields, especially the 10-year yield, fell and hurt the major due to its positive correlation. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 145.21, virtually unchanged.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Insights

After falling to a seven-month low of 141.69, USD/JPY recovered some ground and hit a two-week high of 149.39 before resuming the ongoing downtrend. Momentum is supporting sellers as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

If USD/JPY breaks below 145.00, the daily low of 143.61 on August 6 will be exposed. Once removed, the next support would be 141.69, followed by the December 28 low of 140.25.

On the other hand, if prices climb above 146.00, this may pave the way for further upside. Next resistance would be Tenkan-Sen at 146.92, followed by 149.39, ahead of Kijun-Sen at 149.78.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to combat decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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