Why did Mike Lynch’s Bayesian yacht sink?

The 184-foot, British-flagged ship sank early Monday, and the five bodies identified so far from the incident include Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy and Darktrace; Morgan Stanley Bank International Chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy; Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife, Neda, were also found. Lynch’s daughter Hannah, 18, is still missing.

There are several theories as to why the massive $39 million boat sank in just about 60 seconds. And the ship’s manufacturer says the crew should have had time to rescue the passengers.

Theory one: the mast was pushed by the wind

The first theory is that the mast on the massive vessel was so tall that it overturned the boat when a waterspout—essentially a water tornado—hit the boat. Giovanni Costantino, CEO of Italian Sea Group, which owns several boat brands including yacht builder Perini Navi, told Financial Times the boat was “designed to be absolutely stable” as it had “the second tallest mast in the world”. But Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, suggests the sinking may have been caused by strong winds buffeting the 236-foot mast. Even with the sails stowed, his mast and rigging would have provided a vast surface for wind resistance.

The Bayesian “went flat (with the mast) on the water, then went down,” Borner told Reuters. For reference, the tallest mast on a sailboat on record was Mirabella V at nearly 247 feet long, according to Guinness World Records.

Theory two: the retractable keel was in the wrong position

The second theory about the cause Bayesian sinking is that the keel was retracted when it should have been lowered, making the boat less stable. The keel is a structural beam that runs under the middle of the boat from bow to stern, giving the boat better stability, a lower center of gravity in the water, and more control when moving forward. “Without a keel, a boat could slide or slide on the water,” according to boat manufacturer Sea Born.

The Bayesian had a retractable keel, according to the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. It could be raised to reduce the boat’s draft, making it easier to enter shallow harbors. It is possible that if the keel had been in the raised position rather than extended, this could have compromised the boat’s stability in a strong wind, causing it to sink.

Theory Three: A major hatch was left open to the waves

Perhaps the strongest theory so far is the idea that someone on board left a major hatch or door ajar, causing the boat to quickly fill with water. In fact, Costantino believes this is the strongest theory after watching the behind-the-scenes footage of the dive; the back of the boat appears to have a hinged door that folds into a deck at sea level.

Since it was obvious that Bayesian took on water, there should have been time to get everyone off the boat and onto the rafts, Costantino said FT.

“Jesus Christ! The hull is intact. The water came in from (the hatches) left open,” he said. “There is no other possible explanation. If it had been handled properly, the boat would have handled the weather comfortably – comfortably,” he said. he said.

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