Experts are skeptical of a lasting ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in the Middle East in hopes of negotiating an elusive ceasefire agreement aimed at ending Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip.

But the top US diplomat left the region on August 21 — his ninth visit during the 10-month-old war — without making major progress.

Experts say key differences remain between Israel and the EU- and US-designated Palestinian terror group Hamas, the two sides in the conflict.

“This is still a work in progress and I’m personally not optimistic,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“Glow of Optimism”

Before Blinken’s latest visit, US officials expressed optimism that a ceasefire agreement was closer than ever.

He has traveled to Israel, Egypt and Qatar in a bid to inject urgency into a deal. During his stay in Tel Aviv, he warned that this was “perhaps the last opportunity” to reach a deal.

But Blinken appeared to be disappointed in the comments he made as he wrapped up his tour of the region.

Confidence grew after Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and announced that Israel had accepted a US “bridging proposal” designed to bridge the gap between the two warring sides. He then asked Hamas to do the same.

But just a day later, Netanyahu was quoted by Israeli media as disagreeing on a key sticking point — the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Hamas did not explicitly reject the US proposal, but said it was against previously agreed terms.

Washington wants to add urgency to protracted ceasefire talks after Israel’s alleged assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Iran and a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon last month. Tehran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, has vowed revenge, sparking fears of a wider regional war.

Maksad said the United States was giving “an air of optimism” to the talks to pressure Israel and Hamas to accept the proposed cease-fire deal and to reassure Iran and Hezbollah that progress was being made.

The goal, Maksad added, is to prevent an Iranian-led attack on Israel and prevent an all-out war in the volatile region.

Iran has so far delayed retaliation against Israel and has suggested it does not want its actions to affect the ceasefire talks.

“The War Can’t Actually End”

Experts say it’s not even clear whether the two men at the center of the talks want peace — Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who has been accused of masterminding the deadly Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that sparked the Gaza war.

Key members of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition oppose a ceasefire deal.

“(Netanyahu) knows that his Knesset coalition would be in jeopardy if he signs an agreement to end the war,” said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Bahrain-based consultancy Le Beck International.

Meanwhile, Hamas could be waiting for an Iranian strike on Israel, “which would escalate regional tensions and give the group more leverage in the future,” Horowitz added.

Maksad said that Sinwar from the start of the war “was very keen to get Iran and its various proxies to support his cause”.

Further complicating matters is the attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv on August 18, which Hamas alleged to have carried out in cooperation with the extremist group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Hamas gave up suicide attacks in 2006, before seizing control in Gaza, as it sought more legitimacy and international recognition. But the return of suicide bombings could have consequences, experts say.

“It suggests that the war may not really end, but may only turn into something more terrifying, more destructive and ultimately more threatening to both Israeli security and the future hopes of a Palestinian state ,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at US. – based in Eurasia Group.

Bonding points of the offer

Specific details of the U.S. ceasefire proposal have been kept secret, but analysts say it envisions a multi-phase agreement.

Horowitz said the first phase would include a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from most of Gaza and the release of some of the dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

Negotiations would also take place to facilitate a permanent ceasefire during the second phase.

“Hamas is worried that even if it signs the US proposal, talks for a permanent ceasefire between phase 1 and phase 2 will fail, and Israel will use this as an excuse to resume war,” he said.

Horowitz said Netanyahu wants to retain the right to decide which Palestinian detainees are released in the prisoner exchange. Crucially, he added, Netanyahu also wants the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to maintain a presence along at least one of the two strategic corridors in the Gaza Strip.

The Philadelphi Corridor is a narrow strip of land that runs along the enclave’s southern border with Egypt. The Netzarim Corridor, which runs just south of Gaza City, divides the territory into southern and northern sections.

“Hamas’ primary goal is to ensure a permanent end to the war and the complete withdrawal of all IDF troops — to that end, accepting Israel’s right to keep troops inside the territory is unacceptable,” Brew said.

He added that “without Israeli concessions on Philadelphi or Netzarim — or, less likely, a complete withdrawal of Hamas from the issue — a deal does not seem likely.”

Via RFE/RL

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