Frequency of deadly hurricanes up 300%

New research indicates that what used to be a 100-year hurricane will now happen every 25 years, according to Deep Sky Research, a Montreal-based developer of carbon removal projects.

The new report analyzes U.S. data through its hurricane precipitation model to examine how hurricane risk is changing due to climate change.

The analysis led to six key findings:

1. The frequency of deadly hurricane weather has increased by 300 percent.

Deep Sky Research’s model finds that severe hurricane-force rainfall (causing damage and death) that previously occurred only once every 100 years will now happen every 25. In addition, the likelihood of smaller storms has doubled.

2. The severity of extreme hurricane rainfall increased by 33 percent.

Not only has the frequency of extreme hurricane rainfall increased, but the maximum severity is also increasing, the report found.

3. Hurricanes could cost more than $450 billion over the next 5 years (a 50 percent increase).

Deep Sky Research has built a proprietary machine learning model that projects more than $450 billion in hurricane losses over the next 5 years in the Gulf and South Atlantic states. Florida is expected to have the biggest losses, with Texas a close second.

4. Gulf Coast states experience the largest increases in precipitation.

Gulf Coast states, including Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, should expect the largest increases, while those on the Atlantic Coast, such as North Carolina and South Carolina, will see smaller increases. the analysis showed.

5. Flash floods will now affect the South Atlantic counties every year.

Storm rates are getting worse because hurricanes are getting stronger, but also because sea levels are rising. This means that when a storm surge occurs, the flooding is more severe. Miami is extremely vulnerable to flooding from hurricanes, for example.

6. Houston is most vulnerable to hurricane power outages.

Houston is particularly vulnerable because of its likelihood of being in the path of severe storms and well-documented power grid problems, the report added.

Most deaths caused by hurricanes are the result of the massive volumes of water they dump on coastal areas.

Deep Sky Research analyzed millions of public data points to build a hurricane rainfall model based on the past four decades of climate data to examine these trends, which found that the frequency and severity of extreme hurricane rainfall is increasing.

“Deep Sky Research uses a risk assessment approach to predict the impacts of climate change,” said Max Dugan-Knight, Deep Sky Climate Data Scientist. “Like those used by the insurance industry, a risk-first approach helps us quantify disasters before they happen. For hurricanes, an increase in frequency and severity is driven by record sea surface temperatures.”

Deep Sky Research has developed an interactive map to show flood risk forecasts in every county on the Atlantic coast of the continental US. Crossing each county, it shows how deadly hurricane weather is becoming more frequent and severe. The darker purple the county, the greater the risk of flooding.

Flooding is most destructive in densely populated areas. Miami’s three counties are extremely vulnerable to flooding from hurricanes, for example. One storm a year is now expected, on average, to reach 2.5 feet of flooding in Miami Beach, for example.

The damage and loss of life from hurricanes is compounded by the power outages they cause. Data from the past decade shows where the grid is most vulnerable to hurricane power outages.

Many of the effects of climate change are slow moving, but some will be devastating in their rapid escalation. Deep Sky said the US will get worse hurricanes not in the next 50 years, but in the next five.

To read the full report, visit deepskyclimate.com/research.

TOPICS
Catastrophe Natural disasters Hurricane