Tornado-like waterspouts are ‘more likely’ as the Mediterranean warms

The type of weather phenomenon that could have caused billionaire Mike Lynch’s yacht to sink into the Mediterranean this week is now more likely to happen as global warming has raised sea temperatures, according to climate experts.

The tech mogul’s luxury yacht, Bayesian, was anchored off the Sicilian coast on Monday morning when a swirling mass of wind and water – known as a waterspout – rocked the ship in stormy conditions. It is still under investigation why the 56-meter (184-foot) long ship, worth about 30 million pounds ($39 million), sank so quickly despite being built to withstand hurricanes.

Of the 22 passengers on board, 15 were rescued on Monday. Lynch and Morgan Stanley International Chairman Jonathan Bloomer were among the victims found dead.

Tornado-like events are not uncommon in Italian waters in late summer as sea temperatures are at their warmest, but this year has been exceptionally warm. The Mediterranean broke the record for the highest average daily sea surface temperature at 28.47 C (83.2 F) on August 15.

Peter Inness, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, said the warming waters are feeding heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere – the two main ingredients needed for water droplets to form – meaning such events are now more likely. “We can’t point to climate change as the culprit for the storm that sank the superyacht in Sicily, but it’s clear that warmer seas create a more welcoming environment for trombones,” he said.

A study by the University of Barcelona of areas around the Balearic Islands found that waterspouts are more likely in warmer waters. Sea surface in the Sicily region is now 3 C (5.4 F) above the 1990-2020 average, according to Inness.

Italy experiences more than 100 “tornadic events” a year, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, but offshore marine spills often go unreported.

Commenting on whether the Bayesian tragedy could have been foreseen and prevented, Salvo Cocina, head of Sicily’s Civil Protection Agency, said: “Predicted, perhaps, only at the level of probability — but it is impossible to calculate the position and time of the absolutely localized phenomenon .”

“The sea is much warmer than in past years and has a very strong potential, and this increases the severity of weather events,” he said.

The Mediterranean has long been a favorite summer scene for the world’s rich and famous – not only because of its glamorous landscapes, but also because of the less dramatic weather risks compared to the hurricane-prone Caribbean at this time of year. However, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense in the region as global temperatures continue to rise.

Last year, the Mediterranean suffered a rare hurricane-like storm that tore through Libya, killing thousands in floods. So-called medicines – such as hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones – can develop an eye or clear spot in their core and generate strong fields of winds and storms, along with torrential rain.

Meanwhile, abnormally warm oceans around the world are fueling powerful storms this year. Hurricane Beryl, which formed in June, was the earliest Atlantic hurricane to be recorded as a Category 5, the strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Photo: Italy is hit by about 100 tornadoes a year, according to AtmosphericG2. Photo credit: Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

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