Egypt is looking to China for stealth jets after the US pulled out of the F-35 offer

Egypt’s wish list includes the fourth-generation J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighter, in service with the Chinese and Pakistani air forces, and the fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon, which is still a prototype.

A report in August even claimed that Egyptian officials had sought China’s first fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-20 Mighty Dragon, which is in all likelihood a non-starter given Beijing’s reluctance to export it to anyone.

“China would undoubtedly like to sell advanced fighters from Egypt because the Egyptians tend to buy a lot of military equipment and thus could become a reliable and valuable customer for China,” Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute. , told Business Insider.

“However, Egypt would likely be wary of upsetting the United States by purchasing advanced Chinese-made warplanes, and would also have to overcome Israeli concerns about what such a purchase would signal about future Egypt’s intentions towards Israel’.

Two US laws make it difficult for Egypt to buy its stealth fighters.

First, the United States’ commitment to support Israel’s so-called qualitative military edge by not selling advanced weapons to others in the region was written into law in 2008. Second, the federal Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA ) from 2017 imposes sanctions. against countries that import military hardware from US adversaries.

“Egypt is constrained by US policy to offer Israel a QME vis-à-vis its Arab neighbors, even if those states have a peace treaty with Israel, as Egypt does,” Heras said. “The F-35 is particularly problematic from an Israeli perspective because those planes can be used to counter Israel’s air superiority should Egypt and Israel become enemies again.”

During his presidency, Donald Trump verbally committed to selling Egypt 20 F-35As in 2018, but opposition from the Defense Department and Israel scuttled any potential deal. Frustrated, Egypt turned to Russia for 24 non-stealth fourth-generation Su-35s, but canceled that order under threat of sanctions.

“Why isn’t the US supplying Egypt with the F-35 fighter jets it supplied to Israel because it opposes the Russian Su-35 deal?” Major General Naser Salem, former head of the Egyptian military’s reconnaissance department, remarked to Al-Monitor in 2020, aptly personifying Cairo’s frustration.

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company RANE, wouldn’t be surprised if these recent reports of talks between Egypt and China over potential fighter jet purchases are accurate, but he thinks it’s unlikely likely to make progress.

“I tend to think that if these kinds of talks are taking place, they are meant to pressure the US to provide some kind of other defense option for Egypt,” Bohl said.

That could include upgraded F-16s. The United States also hinted in 2022 that it was open to selling F-15s to Egypt for the first time. None of these decades-old fighters would undermine Israel’s military prowess; The Israel Defense Forces fly advanced versions of these, as well as the F-35 – one of a leading class of so-called fifth-generation fighters with a stealthy design and advanced avionics that give it enhanced survivability in space disputed air, too dangerous for older aircraft.

Since the signing of peace with Israel in 1979, Egypt has been a major customer of US military equipment and assistance. Washington gives Cairo $1.3 billion in military aid each year, and the Egyptian armed forces operate large amounts of American military equipment, from F-16s to M1 Abrams main battle tanks. In light of this, it is questionable whether China would feel comfortable selling one of its most advanced fighters to Egypt.

“China would not want to sell advanced hardware to a major non-NATO ally, such as Egypt, where the US could gather information (or outright steal it),” Bohl said. “I expect Beijing would want these security concerns to be addressed first, which would take time and confidence building.”

Egypt has also bought Chinese warplanes such as the Shenyang J-6. But this is a vintage fighter from a bygone era compared to the modern, state-of-the-art FC-31. At best, Beijing can expect Cairo to invest in less advanced aircraft such as the J-10C before seriously considering any sale of fifth-generation aircraft.

It is unclear whether Cairo can convince Washington to lift its ban on selling the F-35 anytime soon, for several reasons.

“At this time, Egypt’s acquisition of the F-35 is not a priority for the US, given both the QME for Israel, Egypt’s lack of urgent defense needs for the F-35, and Washington’s concerns about the delivery of such systems abroad when it has major geopolitical challenges. in Europe and Asia which weaken the interest in their export,” said Bohl.

It is not inconceivable that Egypt could argue that 20 F-35As would not undermine Israel. After all, Israel has already bought 50 and recently signed a deal for 25 more. Furthermore, Israel has a unique and specialized variant, the F-35I Adir, most likely more advanced than any base model F-35A it has the Egyptian Air Force would receive it. .

“On that front, it’s possible, and especially with Egypt’s support for Israel in the Gaza War, the Israelis might be more open to it,” Bohl said. “I think the constraints are stronger in the US right now than in Israel on the F-35 in general.”

Egypt may also have a third option for acquiring stealth fighters that bypasses China and the US. They could hit countries like South Korea, Turkey and India that are developing stealth planes.

“This is the most viable option, but all these systems are several years away from implementation, let alone export,” Bohl said. “Turkey’s TF Kaan might fit the bill, given that it is the most advanced and Ankara wants it as an export option.”

“If Egypt wants to move into fifth-generation fighter territory, I would venture that these second-tier options are the most likely path.”