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EUR/JPY draws some sellers below 161.00 as nasty BoJ Ueda remarks boost JPY

  • EUR/JPY is trading lighter near 160.70 in the first European session on Monday, down 0.50% on the day.
  • Solicitation comments from the BoJ support the JPY and limit upside for the cross.
  • The ECB’s Rehn said disinflation and a weak economy supported the case for an interest rate cut in September.

EUR/JPY is trading in negative territory around 160.70 during the European session on Monday. Solicitation comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda provide some support to the Japanese yen (JPY) and weigh on the cross. The Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for August will take center stage on Friday.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday reaffirmed his determination to raise interest rates if inflation stays on course to sustainably reach the 2 percent target. Most economists expect Japan’s central bank to raise interest rates again this year, but many see the possibility that it will happen in December rather than October, according to a Reuters poll. Growing speculation of more rate hikes from the BoJ is boosting the JPY against the euro (EUR).

On the euro front, investors are awaiting the first estimate of inflation data for August, which could provide some clues about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision in September. Consensus suggests inflation will ease to 2.3% y/y in August, leading to expectations that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates for the rest of the year. This in turn puts some selling pressure on the shared currency.

Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, said on Friday that slowing inflation, along with weakness in the eurozone economy, strengthened the case for reducing borrowing costs next month.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. The troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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