Exxon predicts that oil demand in 2050 will be equal to today’s, 25% higher than BP’s estimate.

By Sabrina Valle

HOUSTON (Reuters) – ExxonMobil (NYSE: ) said Monday it expects crude oil demand to remain above 100 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2050, similar to today’s levels, a 25% higher forecast than main European rival BP ( NYSE:).

Stronger demand projected by the largest US oil company in the latest global oil outlook is supporting plans to increase production by Exxon, the most ambitious of the Western oil majors. It did not have a demand figure for 2050 in its previous forecasts published in 2023.

The company also presented a more bleak view of reducing global carbon emissions than BP. Technological advances will allow emissions to be reduced after 2029 compared to the middle of this decade, according to BP.

Exxon plans to pump 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas a day this year, 30 percent more than its main U.S. rival Chevron Current output of (NYSE:). BP is cutting production to about 2 million barrels per day by 2030.

“Demand for oil and gas has a very, very long run and will continue to grow over the next few years,” Chris Birdsall, director of Exxon Economics, Energy and Strategic Planning, told Reuters.

Exxon estimates that electric vehicles will not significantly change global oil demand in the long term, as the world’s population is expected to grow from 8 billion today to nearly 10 billion in 2050, adding to energy demand.

If every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, demand would still be 85 million bpd, the same as in 2010. BP predicts oil consumption will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050.

The estimates are more than three times the 24 million barrels per day of crude that the International Energy Agency (IEA) says would allow the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Exxon estimates that 67% of the global energy mix in 2050 will be supplied by oil and coal, down from 68% last year.

The company said more oil investment will be needed than currently anticipated as the world shifts to unconventional resources. Wells in these geological formations, such as US shale, have a shorter production life and show a more pronounced natural decline, it said.

Exxon projects that without new investment, output would fall by about 15 percent a year, a steeper decline than the IEA’s 2018 estimate of about 8 percent a year.

That rate of decline could cause oil prices to quintuple, with global supply falling to 30 million bpd as early as 2030, according to Birdsall.

“Global supplies of oil and natural gas would virtually disappear without continued investment,” Birdsall said. “The biggest reason for the shift is the shift to more short-cycle non-conventional assets.”