ExxonMobil: Oil demand to exceed 100 million Bpd in 2050

As the rivalry over global oil demand forecasts continues to intensify, supergiant Exxon Mobil stepped in on Monday to forecast that crude oil demand will continue to exceed 100 million barrels per day until 2050, contradicting other forecasts coming much smaller, Reuters reported.

Exxon’s forecast, which plans to produce 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas per day this year, is at odds with other forecasts, both among its peers and analysts.

Exxon also estimated that in 2050, 67% of the global energy mix will be fossil fuels, down from 68% last year.

Exxon’s full-year 2024 production forecast is 30% higher than Chevron’s, according to Reuters, and the company’s demand projection is 25% higher than BP’s published in July, predicting that global oil demand will peak next year to around 102 million bpd, while wind and solar capacity will continue on their rapid growth trajectory.

BP, which plans to cut production to about 2 million bpd by 2030, sees oil consumption is gradually decreasing in the second half of the outlook to around 75 million bpd in 2050. The decline is, however, much more pronounced in Net Zero, with demand falling to just 25 million-30 million bpd by 2050.

At the end of last week, Morgan Stanley revised down its oil price forecast to reflect expectations of higher OPEC and non-OPEC supply, along with indications of weaker demand. Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global oil demand growth from 1.2 million bpd to 1.1 million bpd for this year, saying it expects a tight quarter with stabilization in the fourth quarter and a potential surplus through 2025 The company also reduced its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter at $80 a barrel, down from $85, and now expects prices to gradually decline to $75 a barrel by the end of 2025, slightly lower than their previous estimate of $76 of dollars.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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