Argentinian farmers eye soybeans amid corn blight fears, rain outlook By Reuters

By Maximilian Heath

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans in the current 2024/25 season, reducing the area devoted to corn after the last crop of the crop was hit by a devastating insect plague and rain forecasts looking more beautiful for soy.

The trend could see the largest expansion of soybean plantings in more than a decade, analysts said, which could boost global supplies with already low prices. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of processed soybean meal and oil.

The South American country’s soybean acreage has declined in recent years, competing with corn for space. But fears that a leaf blight like the one that devastated the last corn crop could hit the fields again is likely to wipe out about 2 million hectares (4.9 million acres) of corn planting, favoring soybeans.

“Of those 2 million hectares of corn that are not planted, a large part will go to soybeans,” said Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario Grain Exchange, which estimates 16.8 million hectares have been planted. with soy last year.

The Rosario exchange cut its 2024/25 corn planting area by 21 percent earlier this month, but has yet to give an official forecast for soybean planting area. The rival exchange in Buenos Aires cut the corn area by 17%. Corn planting starts next month.

Aníbal Córdoba, a farmer and member of a grower group present in northern provinces including Chaco and Santiago del Estero, said producers are including more soybeans in their plans.

“Our group usually plants 35% to 40% of our land with maize, but this time we will average 20-25%. Of what will not be corn, almost all of it will be replaced by soybeans,” he said. .

HARD EQUATION FOR CORN; A BOOST FOR SOY

A jump for soybeans of nearly 2 million hectares could be the largest since a year-over-year increase of 1.2 million in 2012, 1.4 million in 2008 or even 1.9 million hectares in 2003 .

Fernando Flores, a farm technician and insect expert in the agricultural town of Marcos Juárez in Córdoba province, said last season’s “shocking” maize losses due to the insect plague had put many farmers out of business, although the very cold austral winter would have killed the leaves. significant figures.

“So maybe the decline in corn planting may not be as dramatic as people think if it rains in September,” he said.

But Germán Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at the Applied Climatology Consulting Firm, said the outlook for early September remained dry, with more rain forecast for October, another boost for soybeans, whose planting begins that month.

“Soil moisture levels right now in much of the agricultural area in the west and center are not suitable for planting,” Heinzenknecht said. “So the overall equation is heavy for corn and a boost for soybeans.”