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XAG/USD Struggles Near $30 Amid Uncertainty Over Size of Fed Rate Cuts

  • The price of silver faces pressure to extend its rally above $30.00 as US bond yields rise.
  • The Fed looks set to cut interest rates in September.
  • Investors are eagerly awaiting core US PCE inflation data for July.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is struggling to extend its lead above the psychological resistance of $30.00 in the Tuesday session in New York. The white metal’s short-term outlook remains bullish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start cutting interest rates at its September meeting. As investors seek clarity on the likely size by which the Fed will cut its key lending rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures price data show the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September is 28.5%, while the rest favor a 25 cut bps.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed an interest rate cut of a quarter to one percent in September in her interview with Bloomberg on Monday. However, she kept the door open for a bigger one if the job market deteriorates.

Steady optimism for Fed rate cuts in September continues to weigh on the US dollar and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is seeing more declines below its year-to-date (YTD) low of 100.53. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are rising to near 3.86 percent amid caution ahead of core U.S. (U.S.) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for July due on Friday.

In general, higher yields on interest-bearing assets are weakly detrimental to non-yielding assets such as silver, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in them.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver bounced back strongly after finding firm buying interest near its August 1 high of $29.16 in a four-hour window. The white metal is expected to extend its rally towards the July 11 high of $31.75. The upward sloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $29.70 warrants more upside.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is swinging in the ascending range of 60.00-80.00, indicating strong upside momentum.

The silver four-hour chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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