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WTI slips below $75.50 amid economic concerns in the US and China

  • The WTI price is trading in negative territory in the first European session on Wednesday, down 0.35% on the day.
  • Slower economic growth in the US and China could dampen demand for WTI.
  • The potential shutdown of Libya’s oil production and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could limit crude oil price downside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude, is trading around $75.10 on Wednesday. The WTI price is falling as investors worry about slower economic growth in the United States and China.

Data released by the Conference Board on Wednesday showed that the US consumer confidence index improved to 103.3 in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July. However, consumers are more concerned about the job market after the unemployment rate hit a near three-year high of 4.3% last month.

In addition, concerns about the economic health and future oil demand from China are weighing on crude oil prices, with China being the world’s largest oil importer. Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, noted that demand in China has eased as the country switches from gasoline to electric cars.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended August 23 fell by 3.4 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.347 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus expected inventories to fall by 3.0 million barrels.

WTI price downside could be limited amid potential shutdown of Libyan oil production and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is worth noting that Libya produces about 1.2 million barrels per day, with more than 1 million barrels per day exported to the global market. Developments surrounding production cuts in Libya sparked further supply concerns and lifted the price of WTI.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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