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USD/JPY trades slight losses near 144.50 ahead of US Q2 GDP data

  • USD/JPY eases near 144.50 in first Asian session on Thursday.
  • The BoJ’s Himino said the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if inflation remained on track.
  • Fed’s dovish stance undermines US dollar against JPY.

USD/JPY remains on the defensive around 144.50 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to undercut the US dollar (USD) in the short term. Investors await the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth number for Q2, which is expected to rise 2.8%.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Vice Governor Ryozo Himino said on Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation holds its course, while closely monitoring financial market conditions.

His comments echo those of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week, who said recent market volatility would not derail plans for longer-term rate hikes. Most economists expect the BOJ to raise interest rates again this year, starting in December rather than October, according to a Reuters poll.

On the other hand, dovish comments from the US central bank hurt the greenback against the JPY. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said “the time has come for policy to adjust.” Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September, while the possibility of a deeper rate cut is 36.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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