Ukraine’s Kursk attack would do better if West dropped arms ban: experts

Experts say it is unclear how the incursion will end, but they add that it has been highly successful, both in allowing Ukraine to take the initiative and in embarrassing Russia.

They also said that Ukraine would have been even more successful if it had dropped the restrictions that many of Ukraine’s main allies, including the US, have imposed.

This would have allowed Ukraine to use the long-range missiles they supplied them with to hit targets in Russia itself.

Rajan Menon, a senior fellow at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, said being able to use these weapons would help Ukraine “in terms of disrupting logistics, in terms of hitting airfields, ammunition, supplies, oil and lubricants. “

He added that Ukraine has struck some of these targets with drones, but being able to do so on a larger scale with Western weaponry would make things even more difficult for Russia.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russia has moved forces into the region, and Ukraine, using missiles to hit roads and crossroads, could disrupt those efforts.

Restriction of Ukraine

While countries such as the US have lifted some restrictions around Ukraine using its weapons on targets in Russia, those still in place mean it cannot use some of its most powerful weapons, including Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles, to target Russian sources. attacks.

“If we allowed the Ukrainians to reap the suite of benefits that come from using those missiles, that would really help the Kursk campaign,” said George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War think tank in DC.

Barros added that Ukraine had to use significant resources to protect its power, infrastructure and weaponry from attack, while “the Russians categorically don’t really have to deal with that.”

Ukraine has repeatedly called on its allies to lift the restrictions, saying they make it much more difficult for its defense.

In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on August 19 that Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk would not have been necessary if its allies had already lifted restrictions.

He said the incursion was meant to create a buffer zone to prevent more Russian attacks in nearby parts of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine’s success at Kursk showed that Western fears that Russia would escalate the conflict if its supposed red lines were crossed were false.

Meanwhile, war analysts have done it before BI said that in launching the Kursk incursion, Ukraine probably wanted to expand Russia’s forces and provide new motivation for its troops and allies.

Barros said it was unclear how the snap operation would end or what Russia or Ukraine would decide to do next.

But he said it was a boost for Ukraine to have taken the initiative after months of being stuck in a largely defensive posture.

“Now there are no more Ukrainians lying on their backs for more than nine months at a time just doing their best to sort through,” he said.

Menon described it as an “embarrassing moment” for Russia, as its response both in terms of evacuating people and handling the incursion “was disastrous”.

“I mean, there’s just no other way to say it,” he said.