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XAG/USD consolidates below $30 as US PCE inflation looms

  • The silver price is holding in a tight range near $29.50 with US PCE inflation under the spotlight.
  • Annual core US PCE inflation is estimated to have risen to 2.7% in July.
  • The Fed is almost certain to start cutting interest rates in September.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is trading in a tight range near $29.50 in the European session on Friday. The white metal is firming as investors shrug off US (US) personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation for August due out at 12:30 GMT.

Economists expect annual core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise at a faster pace of 2.7% from June’s reading of 2.6%, with the monthly numbers steadily increasing by 0, 2% While the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, inflation data will weigh on speculation about the potential size of the rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, data on 30-day Federal Funds Futures prices show that the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in September is 33%, while the rest favor a 25bps cut. .

Ahead of US inflation data, US 10-year Treasury yields fall to 3.86%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is trading in a tight range near 101.50. The US Dollar (USD) maintains Thursday’s recovery move, driven by better-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. According to revised estimates, the US economy expanded at a faster pace of 3% than the rapid estimate of 2.8% on an annual basis.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver remains sideways near $29.50, oscillating in Thursday’s trading range. The white metal continues to receive support from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around $29.00.

The August 26 high of $30.20 will be the major resistance for silver price bulls.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecision among market participants.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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