Ukraine may try to attack a new area of ​​Russia, may fail: experts

He also claimed that Russian forces had limited access to Belgorod’s Vyazovoye village on Tuesday because of an unspecified “difficult operational situation” in the area, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

Several Russian military bloggers said Russian forces also repelled Ukrainian attacks near the villages of Nekhoteevka and Zhuravlyovka.

And geolocated images shared by bloggers and military analysts appeared to show Ukrainian forces operating in the neighboring Kursk region, close to the border with Belgorod.

If those reports prove accurate, military and political analysts said they would suggest Ukraine is trying to show allies it can take the initiative.

“I could imagine that Ukraine is increasing the frequency of incursions across the Russian border to, firstly, distract the Russian forces in Donbas, secondly, to create more discontent with the war in Russia, and thirdly , to show its own population and international partners Ukraine’s capacity,” Alexander Libman, professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said part of Ukraine’s strategy appears to be “to show that they can take back the initiative and not just stay on the defensive and absorb the blows Russian “

“The Kursk attack gave hope that this would be the beginning of a victory plan, but one incursion was not enough,” he added.

Invasion of Russia

Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Kursk on August 6, catching both the West and Russia off guard.

As of Tuesday, Ukraine has claimed nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s military, said Ukrainian forces had captured 100 settlements and forced Russia to redeploy 30,000 troops to Kursk.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said one of the aims of the operation was to create a “buffer zone”.

And during a press conference in Kiev on Tuesday, Zelensky said Kursk is the first step in a four-part plan for victory, which he will present to President Joe Biden in September.

Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc., a Toronto-based strategic consulting firm, told BI that Ukraine wants to present the US not just with a “theoretical plan” but an “actionable starting point.”

“If Zelensky goes to Washington and shows a Ukrainian bridgehead in Russia, stretching from Kursk to Belgorod, it completely changes the optics and ideas about the future of the war,” he said.

But military experts told BI that a new incursion could be a dangerous gamble because Ukraine may lack the manpower and capacity to make progress while holding a 600-mile front line in eastern Ukraine.

“Ukraine would like to make more incursions, but it doesn’t have the forces to do that,” Cancian said.

In addition, Russian forces are “definitely” more alert to the possibility of cross-border attacks after what happened in Kursk, he said, while Belgorod’s proximity to Kursk means Russian units will be more “combat oriented.”

Libman said he had “serious doubts” that Ukraine’s incursions would be “successful” in diverting Russian troops from the main 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine.

“I’m sure it will fail,” he said.

A race against time

It remains unclear whether Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk and potential incursion into Belgorod will bear fruit and whether it will be able to retain control of Russian territory.

According to Mark Temnycky, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, Ukraine may be motivated to make further progress now due to the growing uncertainty of the political landscape in the West and increased pressure to enter into peace talks with Russia.

“Ukraine may try to establish control over Russian territory, which it will use as a bargaining chip in exchange for land now occupied by Russia,” he said, adding: “Holding land in Kursk and Belgorod will be important in this regard “.

But Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis, research associate at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, said it was not just Ukraine that was trying to make progress.

“Both countries are trying to win maximum negotiating positions before winter sets in,” he said.