close
close
migores1

Aussie drops as USD strengthens

  • The USD has recovered from signs of sticky PCE inflation in July.
  • The rally in the AUD during August was mainly supported by a weak USD and improved risk asset conditions.
  • The RBA’s hawkish stance continues to benefit the Aussie.

AUD/USD fell 0.70% to 0.6750 in the Friday session as the USD strengthened in response to July’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures. Despite this, the dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may limit further declines in the AUD.

Despite a complex economic outlook for Australia, the RBA has adopted a hawkish stance in response to persistent inflation. As a result, financial markets now anticipate a modest 25 basis point cut in interest rates by 2024.

Daily Market Moments: Aussie takes a break, fundamentals continue to favor growth

  • The RBA keeps the OCR at 4.35%, signaling a cautious approach and continued inflation concerns.
  • Governor Bullock underlines the RBA’s willingness to raise rates further if necessary.
  • Rising copper and iron ore prices also contributed to the AUD’s upward momentum.
  • US PCE inflation data showed core inflation rose 2.6%, slower than expected and pointing to persistent core inflation.
  • The divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the RBA could limit the pair’s downside.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: A bearish impulse appears, the pair loses 0.6800

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58, pointing down, indicating that selling pressure is building. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows flat green bars, suggesting that the bullish pull is running out of gas.

However, all indications are that buyers are taking a breather after August’s furious rally, which saw indicators close to overbought.

Key support levels to watch are 0.6750 and 0.6730, while resistance levels to consider are 0.6800 (previous support) and 0.6830.

Australian Dollar FAQ

One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country, another key factor is the price of its biggest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as is Australia’s inflation, growth rate and trade. Balance. Market sentiment – ​​whether investors are taking riskier assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk positive for the AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates at which Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main aim of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD and the opposite is relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence lending conditions, the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner, so the health of the Chinese economy has a major influence on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, increasing demand for the AUD and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in China’s growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.

Iron ore is Australia’s biggest export, accounting for $118 billion a year, according to 2021 data, with China as the main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Generally, if the price of iron ore rises, so does the AUD, as aggregate demand for the currency rises. The opposite is true if the price of iron ore falls. Higher iron ore prices also tend to result in a higher likelihood of a positive trade balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.

The balance of trade, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will only gain in value from the excess demand created by foreign buyers wanting to buy its exports over what it spends on buying its imports. A positive net trade balance therefore strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.

Related Articles

Back to top button