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XAG/USD slips to near $28.50 on weaker Fed sentiment

  • Silver loses ground as US PCE data lowers chances of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September.
  • According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, it suggests a 70.0% chance of a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points in September.
  • Safe-haven Silver could be under downward pressure following widespread protests that erupted in Israel on Sunday.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is extending its losses for a second straight session, trading around $28.50 per troy ounce in the early hours of Monday. That downside could be attributed to improved risk sentiment after Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data for July prompted traders to scale back expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, a prominent FOMC hawk, indicated last week that it might be “time to move” on rate cuts because of further declines in inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which rates the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a scale of 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Bostic’s words as neutral with a score of 5.6.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are 70.0% anticipating a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed at its September meeting. Traders may now focus on upcoming US employment figures, including non-farm payrolls (NFP) for August, to gain more insight into the potential size and pace of Fed rate cuts.

Safe-Haven Silver could face downward pressure as widespread protests erupted in Israel on Sunday, fueled by growing frustration over the government’s inability to secure a ceasefire agreement. Israeli media estimated that up to 500,000 people demonstrated in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and other cities, urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take stronger action to bring home the 101 remaining hostages, according to Reuters.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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