Economic weakness persists in August – UOB Group

Caixin and the official manufacturing PMI diverged, while the official non-manufacturing PMI rose marginally in August, notes UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen.

Signs of weaker manufacturing activity

“The Caixin and official manufacturing PMI diverged, while the official non-manufacturing PMI rose marginally in August after falling consecutively in the previous four months. Employment and prices weakened for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in August.”

“Signs of weaker activity, particularly for the manufacturing sector, suggest it will be a challenge for China to sustain 1H24’s 5.0% growth rate for the rest of the year, likely to miss the official growth target of “around 5.0%” this year”.

“We maintain our forecast for GDP growth in 2024 at 4.9%, with risks still biased to the downside.”