Weak PMI and (too) PBoC activity – Commerzbank

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for China rose somewhat unexpectedly this morning to 50.4 from 49.8 last month, but the market seems to be focusing on the official PMI. The official PMI was released on Saturday and showed a further decline in economic momentum, notes Commerzbank currency strategist Volkmar Baur.

Deflation risk in China remains intact

“The decline in the official PMI was also broad-based. In the manufacturing sector, both output and new orders fell. In addition, both the labor market and price developments subcomponents showed continued weakness. Price components suggest that producer prices fell again quite sharply in August on a month-on-month basis, which is likely to push the annual rate back towards -2.0%. The risk of deflation in China itself therefore remains, as does the disinflationary drive for the rest of the world.”

“To limit the impact of the weak economy on government bond yields, the PBoC started actively buying and selling government bonds in the market last week. This was done to lower the current interest rate on the short end and keep it high on the long end. The idea was to tilt the yield curve without withdrawing liquidity from the market as a whole. It appears that the central bank wants to prevent the current interest rates on long-term government bonds from falling further.”

“By supporting the interest rate level, the aim is to prevent the spread on the US 10-year Treasury from becoming too wide, which would put pressure on the CNY. However, in this case, the timing would be suspect as the CNY has tended to appreciate against the US dollar recently. Another suspicion is that the PBoC wants to prevent the current yield on 30-year Chinese government bonds from falling below that of Japanese government bonds of the same maturity.”