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Crude oil is trying to hold steady at the lower end of the short-term chop

  • WTI struggled to hold the $73.00 float on Monday.
  • Crude oil markets are looking to see if Libya off-balances OPEC’s momentum.
  • Declining trade activity in China is also weighing on crude oil supplies.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained roughly flat to start the new week of trading, finding a foothold and maintaining intraday action north of $73.00 a barrel. Libya announced a halt to exports of crude oil out of the country on Monday as political divisions battle over who controls Libya’s crude oil balances, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to ease restrictions on production ceilings from member states and to slow down. activity figures from China weigh on crude oil demand expectations.

According to reports, Libya has halted all crude oil exports from the country as political rivals battle over who controls Libya’s crude oil production assets and, more importantly, the profits. Production levels in Libya are also expected to decline in the immediate future.

The expanded league of non-OPEC allies, OPEC+, is set to begin reducing voluntary production limits as smaller countries buckle under the weight of lopsided pumping limits designed to keep global crude prices supported. Energy markets generally hope that the sharp decline in Libyan exports and production will help at least partially offset the expected increase in OPEC+ production numbers.

China’s recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) activity surveys are trending lower as the country’s economic activity declines much faster and steeper than many expected. With Chinese trade activity stumbling into a steeper-than-anticipated routine, markets are increasingly fearful that a slowdown in Chinese crude demand growth could leave the global oil market with a surplus permanent.

WTI Price Forecast

Crude oil markets once again found themselves caught in a volatile range. WTI prices rise between $72.00 and $77.00 per barrel, but a medium-term decline from the July highs near $84.00 per barrel has price action stuck on the low side of the exponential moving average (EMA ) on 200 days, close to $78.00.

WTI daily chart

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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