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WTI holds below $73.50 amid sluggish Chinese demand, which has halted Libyan exports

  • WTI attracts some sellers near $73.30 in the first Asian session on Tuesday.
  • China’s production activity slowed in August, weighing on the WTI price.
  • Halting Libyan exports and higher Fed interest rate expectations could limit WTI’s downside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude, is trading around $73.30 on Tuesday. The slowdown in production activity in China in August is putting some selling pressure on the WTI price. However, supply concerns about Libya’s oil production could limit its downside.

China’s sluggish economy and slowing oil demand are raising fears about the economic health of the world’s largest oil importer, weighing on WTI prices. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s manufacturing sector contracted in August to the lowest level in six months. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in August, compared to 49.54 in the previous reading. The reading missed the market consensus of 49.5 in the reported month.

Libya’s oil production was halted across the country on Monday amid ongoing conflict between various factions since the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Fears of oil supply disruptions could provide support for WTI prices.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, noted: “The current turmoil in Libya’s oil production could provide room for additional supply from OPEC+. But these fluctuations have become fairly normal in recent years, meaning any disruption is likely to be short-lived; with the flow of news indicating signals to resume production have already been given.”

Oil traders will take more cues from the release of the US ISM manufacturing PMI for August, due on Tuesday. Later this week, US non-farm payrolls (NFP) will take center stage. This event could provide insight into the size and pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Lower interest rates generally support the price of WTI as it lowers the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and demand for oil.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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