Less OPEC oil in the near term – Commerzbank

The Reuters news agency yesterday published a first survey-based estimate of OPEC production in August: at 26.4 million barrels, the cartel’s daily output was 340 thousand barrels lower than in July, and therefore , the lowest level since January, notes Barbara Lambrecht, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

August OPEC production is the lowest level since January

“The main reason for this was a significant drop in production in Libya by 290 thousand barrels per day. This reflects not only recent production losses, but also the shutdown of the Sharara oil field earlier this month. Although Libya is an OPEC member, it is not tied to production targets. OPEC members with quotas are still producing 220,000 barrels per day above target, according to the Reuters report, which is still largely due to Iraq.”

“However, OPEC production could fall further in September: First, if Libyan oil production is cut for a long time – on August 28, production fell to just under 600,000 barrels per day, and yesterday “force majeure” was reported for another oil field. And secondly, if Iraq implements the plans it confirmed during the OPEC Secretary General’s visit and cuts its production below 4 million barrels.”