If Trump wins? Here are the results of Investing.com’s Nomura Investor Survey

Investing.com — As the 2024 presidential election nears, speculation is growing about the potential for a second term for Trump.

Nomura said in a note on Tuesday that while Vice President Kamala Harris currently appears to be a slight favorite, a Trump victory is still seen as a strong possibility.

In light of this, Nomura surveyed its clients to gauge their expectations for a Trump 2.0 presidency and its impact on US politics, economies and global markets.

According to Nomura’s findings, investors anticipate that Trump’s approach on tariffs will be more restrained than his rhetoric suggests. A significant majority (60%) believe that while Trump will likely raise tariffs, the increases will be less severe than the 60% for China and 10% for the rest of the world that he has proposed.

The firm adds that tax policy under Trump is expected to continue under his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Nearly half of respondents (44%) expect Trump to fully extend these tax cuts, with another 23% anticipating additional tax cuts.

Immigration policy is another area where Trump is expected to take strong action. The survey found that a majority of investors (41%) predict a drastic limitation of illegal immigration without mass deportations, while nearly 37% expect both strict immigration controls and active deportations.

Foreign policy in a second Trump term could also see dramatic changes. Notably, Nomura says 25 percent of respondents believe Trump could withdraw the U.S. from NATO, while 59 percent believe he will require some allies to pay for U.S. defense protection.

Nomura’s survey reflects concerns about higher inflation, a wider fiscal deficit and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions such as the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine.

Despite these potential risks, however, 57% of respondents expect higher GDP growth under Trump 2.0, indicating a complex and multifaceted outlook for the US economy and global relations.