Will Bitcoin’s September Crash Repeat This Year?

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September is a traditionally volatile month for Bitcoin (BTC), usually leading to monthly losses, according to analysts. The projection is that BTC could drop to $55,000 if the average loss is seen this month.

The merchant identified as Rekt Capital impart on X that a single-digit downside for Bitcoin in September occurs 54% of the time, while a single-digit downside occurs 27% of the time.

Notably, Bitfinex analysts added that the average return is 4.78%, and a typical drop from peak to trough is 24.6%. This volatility, they explained to Crypto Briefing, is caused by the end of the “summer lull” as fund managers return from vacation and human-driven trading activity picks up.

Despite the drop from peak to trough being 24.6%, Rekt Capital highlights that the average recurring draw of BTC in September is 7%. “This would mean Bitcoin will fall back to ~$55,000,” he added.

Extreme landscape

However, Bitfinex analysts consider another level of complexity in the dynamics of September this year, which is an interest rate cut by the Fed. This could exacerbate market volatility.

“This historical price action for September also aligns with our view of an expected 20% drop in Bitcoin prices following a rate cut,” the analysts said.

If this scenario happens, then Bitcoin could go as high as $45,000 in September. However, on the latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report, the exchange analysts Underline that this is not an arbitrary number as it speculates on the evolution of macroeconomic conditions.

Glimpses of hope

Bitfinex analysts also added that while August ends in the red, September has occasionally defied expectations and delivered positive returns.

“This could provide a counterargument to the assumption that September will necessarily be a bear month for Bitcoin,” they added.

Moreover, Rekt Capital it shone a glimmer of hope for his followers if Bitcoin actually ends up correcting this month saying that October typically produces a double-digit 22% increase.

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