EU and NATO struggle with financial commitments to Ukraine

Over the weekend, the largest gathering of think tanks in Central Europe, the Globsec forum, took place in Prague. The theme was “Taming The Storm,” a reference to the myriad challenges facing Europe — from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s malign influence to a potential new US president less invested in the continent and the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence ( AI ).

Despite the ominous theme, this year’s Globsec was actually pretty uneventful, especially compared to last year. Back then, French President Emmanuel Macron stole the show by telling the largely Central European crowd that they had been right about Vladimir Putin all along and that Paris had got the Russian president’s assessment horribly wrong.

There were also frantic (and ultimately failed) efforts to get Serbian and Kosovar leaders to reduce tension in the region, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promising (and later delivering) an increase of 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion). plan for the Western Balkans for the next three years.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of this year’s Globsec was that it was not held in Bratislava, the forum’s home for the past 18 years. Shortly after coming to power in the fall of 2023, Slovak left-wing populist Prime Minister Robert Fico withdrew both political and economic support for the forum, although he was a big supporter of the event during his terms his previous ones.

This appears to be a continuation of Bratislava’s concerted effort to target various institutions and follows the takeover of Slovak state TV in the spring and, more recently, the dismissal of the heads of the country’s prominent cultural institutions.

Prague provided a welcome refuge for the forum this time — and the Czech capital will host again in 2025. After that, who knows? It looks like the Czech Republic will have its own populist, Andrej Babis, back in power next fall.

Even though Globsec is under the auspices of pro-Western Czech President Petr Pavel, I heard from more than a few people at the three-day meeting that Warsaw is being considered as an alternative host.

Von Der Leyen comes out swinging…

Without Macron this time, neither the German chancellor nor the Ukrainian president, the center stage was taken by the newly re-elected von der Leyen. In an apparent jab at the governments of Hungary and Slovakia, which have both questioned the utility of greater financial and military support for Ukraine, she noted that “today, some politicians within our union, and even on this side of Europe, muddy the waters of our conversation about Ukraine they blame the war not on the invader but on the invaded, not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom would you ever blame the Czechs for the Soviet repression of 1968. The answer to these questions is very clear: was the behavior of the Kremlin illegal and atrocious in the present?

Von der Leyen also saved some powerful salvos for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who in July embarked on a much-publicized “peace mission” to Moscow and Beijing.

“We Europeans have many different histories. We speak many different languages, but in no language is peace synonymous with capitulation,” she said. “In no language is sovereignty synonymous with occupation. So those who advocate stopping support for Ukraine are not advocating for peace. They are advocating appeasement and subjugation of Ukraine.”

… And Budapest Returns

While most Globsec attendees tended to echo von der Leyen’s view, it was interesting to hear a different take from a representative of the Hungarian government. In one of the most tense sessions of the weekend, Orban’s political director Balasz Orban (no relation) championed Budapest’s view.

It would be good, said Balasz Orban, for Europe to stop “endless wars and bring peace”. He emphasized that this was a view shared around the world and that only what he called the “transatlantic liberal elite” were opposed to the idea.

He then pointed out that Russia has gained territory, that the war has sent millions of Ukrainian refugees fleeing, that hundreds of thousands have died on both sides, that the Ukrainian economy is in ruins and financed by the West. Then he casually asked how long he could keep this up.

Only when he said that Ukraine would soon become “Europe’s problem” because even the Democrats in the United States will realize that they cannot fund the war for much longer did one of the other panelists, American diplomat Kurt Volker, retort that it would still be better than Europe having Russia “as your problem”.

A cold winter ahead

Amid all the upbeat talk at the conference about Ukraine’s urgent needs and the West needing to step up, the mood heading into the fall felt decidedly somber.

Sure, many felt a bit of optimism with Ukraine’s weeks-long incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Experts agreed that Kiev could benefit from both the buffer zone it provides and use the hundreds of Russian POWs as useful bargaining chips in potential future negotiations.

But as the Prague forum took place, there were reports of the Russian military moving ever closer to the key Ukrainian hub of Pokrovsk, with the road to Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, Dnipropetrovsk, suddenly opening up . The EU’s ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, noted that this summer military support from the bloc is at the same level as in spring 2022 — down to a filter — and added that the Ukrainians “can’t make commitments, but need of live ammunition”. She also warned of the possibility of a “cold and dark winter”, with Russia cutting off around 70% of Ukraine’s pre-war energy production.

Another telling admission came from former Dutch defense minister Kajsa Ollongren, who made it clear in no uncertain terms that the Ukraine Compact, a security framework signed by all 32 NATO allies at the Washington, DC summit in July, was “a bit of window dressing”, although she was quick to add that bilateral security agreements between Kiev and various Western capitals are still significant. While several European diplomats have confided this to me in private, it was still a sobering assessment to hear it spoken out loud.

It went pretty much the same way. In one session, Anders Carp, deputy managing director of Saab, the Swedish aerospace and defense company, made perhaps the most chilling comment of the weekend when he noted that European nations must continue to provide special training to Ukrainian troops as “many of the Ukrainians. the soldiers we trained are now dead.”

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur asked whether “we want Ukraine to fight or we want Ukraine to win,” adding that the West is failing to give the country what it needs.

There are some promising signs. Last week, NATO ambassadors met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and EU defense ministers met with each other in Brussels to discuss lifting more Western restrictions on Ukraine that hit inside Russia.

Despite the meetings, according to EU diplomatic sources briefed on the matter, there is no real movement yet, and Germany, Italy, the United States and others remain cautious. Speaking about the restrictions, Pevkur said it was “like asking a boxer to fight with one hand behind his back”.

Money and political will issues

In the end, it all comes down to money and political will in the West. The Estonian defense minister was again blunt, noting that apart from the cash issue, the arms industry needed to plan because strict environmental assessments are required for expansion and it often takes more than 18 months to navigate the bureaucracy.

In Russia, he emphasized, there are no restrictions. “If Putin decides that a sausage factory will produce weapons the next day, it is decided,” he said.

With this in mind, it was enlightening to listen to Angus Lapsley, who is responsible for defense planning at NATO. While the military alliance now proudly states that a record 23 out of 32 allies have met the target of spending 2% or more of their national gross domestic product (GDP), Lapsley noted that spending needs to increase by another triple or, in some cases, double. The Cold War average for NATO was 3.5 percent of GDP, he added.

He highlighted the many capability gaps the alliance needed to fill: ammunition, spare parts, air defense, long-range strike capabilities. He also said that even seemingly simple measures such as improved integrated communications and intelligence systems were needed because militaries in different countries were sometimes unable to send e-mail to each other.

A fiery clash of the Balkans

One surprise was when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that Ukraine would become a member of the EU by 2030. It was not clear if his comment was made in jest, as he was speaking in a rather hectic session. Sharing the stage with Montenegrin President Jakov Mijatovic, Vucic mocked Mijatovic’s stated goal of Podgorica becoming a member of the bloc by 2028.

Vucic rejected the idea that a Western Balkan state would join the EU this decade, saying only Kiev had a chance. The two Balkan leaders then had a difficult discussion over whether the Montenegrin language was actually Serbian, with Vucic criticizing Podgorica for recognizing Kosovo’s independence in 2008.

Vucic continued in a similarly combative manner, rejecting the idea that Belgrade was a Kremlin Trojan horse trying to enter the EU and explaining that he had not been in contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin for over two years (although people in his entourage they had ).

The Serbian president said that “the EU’s interests are from time to time different from our interests”, adding that the main impediment to Belgrade’s continued EU integration was its relations with Kosovo, rather than Russia.

The EU-sponsored dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, which has been going on since 2011, has not seen much progress in the past few years. Judging by the mood in Prague this weekend, he said, it’s hard to believe that will change.

Looking ahead

The EU’s Foreign Affairs Council was last week moved from Budapest to Brussels following outrage over Orban’s trip to Moscow in July. But the bloc’s General Affairs Council, which brings together the European ministers of the member states, will take place in the Hungarian capital on September 3.

Some countries, notably the Baltic trio and Finland, have already said they won’t be sending ministers to the event, so we’ll see if others follow suit.

Via RFE/RL

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