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XAG/USD draws some sellers below $28.00 as traders prepare for key US data

  • Silver lost ground for a fourth straight day around $27.90 in the first European session on Wednesday, down 0.55% on the day.
  • Stronger concerns about USD demand and China are undermining silver, while bets on the Fed’s rising interest rate cuts could help limit its losses.
  • The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for August will take center stage on Friday.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is facing selling pressure near $27.90 in early European trading on Wednesday. Renewed demand for the US dollar (USD) is weighing on the USD silver price. Traders will take more cues from the highly anticipated US Payrolls (NFP) in the US, which could influence the price of the white metal.

Growth in China’s service activity slowed in August despite the summer travel peak. China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.6 in August from 52.1 in July, weaker than the estimate of 52.2. This report and another PMI report over the weekend added to concerns about the economic slowdown and deteriorating demand in China, which is putting some selling pressure on silver prices as China is the largest exporter of silver globally.

Impending interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could support the precious metal in the short term as it makes silver cheaper for most buyers. Markets are now pricing in a nearly 61 percent chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is 39 percent, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August will be more significant than usual and could provide some clues about the size and pace of the Fed’s interest rate cut. The US economy is expected to add 163,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate will fall to 4.2%. In the event of a weaker-than-expected reading, this could prompt speculation about a looming US recession and deeper rate cuts, which could boost silver prices.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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