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XAG/USD Holds Below $28.50 as Traders Prepare for US PMI Data

  • The price of silver is trading with slight losses around $28.25 in the first Asian session on Thursday.
  • August US non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be closely watched on Friday.
  • The USD’s rebound and China’s growth pessimism are dragging silver down, but firmer Fed rate cut bets could limit its downside.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is trading in a slight bearish trend near $28.25 on Thursday during the opening session in Asia. The US dollar’s (USD) modest recovery is weighing on the white metal. However, growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates deeper at its next meeting this month could help limit Silver’s losses.

The weaker US JOLTS report released on Wednesday increased the chances of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, which acts as a barometer for market expectations of the Fed funds target rate, the chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting is 57%, while the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps is 43%. Impending Fed rate cuts could cover the precious metal’s short-term downside as it makes XAG/USD cheaper for most buyers.

The US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in focus on Friday and are expected to show 161,000 job additions in the US economy. In the event of a weaker outcome, this could put some selling pressure on the greenback and lift the price of silver in USD.

On the other hand, China’s growth pessimism and demand concerns could undermine the white metal, as China is the largest exporter of silver globally. Analysts at Bank of America Global Research cut forecasts for China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 5.0% to 4.8% in 2024. Meanwhile, China’s unfavorable Caixin Services PMI is contributing to the decline, falling to 51.6 from 52.1 in July.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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