Recession? Nonfarm Payrolls to provide guidance and rock Gold, stocks, US dollar

The nonfarm payrolls figures for August come after weak data raised recession fears and the Fed weighed the size of its first rate cut. Gold, stocks and the US dollar are in for a wild ride. Live coverage.

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Why nonfarm payrolls watched with fear and hope ahead of the rate cut

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said he will do everything he can to support the labor market — a major shift from a focus on inflation. While markets know the Fed will cut rates later this month, the size of the cut is unknown.

Non-farm payrolls are back to No. 1 in the market and there are fears they could be weak. While the economic calendar points to an increase of 160,000 jobs in August, a weak report from ADP, America’s largest payroll provider, implies a weaker result. Investors will also look to the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3 percent in July, as a gauge of the health of the world’s largest economy.

The data comes at the end of a short and busy week in the US, the “back to school” period after Labor Day. Trading liquidity has increased substantially.

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