Exclusive-Russia raises 2024 oil and gas export forecast by $17.4 billion, document says By Reuters

By Darya Korsunskaya

(Reuters) – Russia’s Economy Ministry revised up its 2024 forecast for oil and gas export sales, key sources of budget revenue, by $17.4 billion from an earlier estimate of $239.7 billion, due to a more positive price outlook, a document seen by Reuters. showed.

The improved expectations for Russia’s oil and gas business underscore how the West has sought to inflict lasting damage on Russia’s economy through unprecedented sanctions, including oil price caps and import restrictions, over Moscow’s war with Ukraine.

The document shows Russian exports rising to 239.9 million metric tons (4.8 million barrels per day) this year from 238.3 million tons in 2023.

The ministry also expects the average price of Russian oil sold for export to rise this year to $70 a barrel, an upward revision of $5 from an estimate made in April. This is also up from $64.5 in 2023 and above the $60 per barrel price threshold imposed by the West.

prices were also revised upwards, for sales in both Europe and China.

Russia has been able to divert much of its business from Europe since its invasion of Ukraine by increasing trade with China and India.

Reviews ultimately mean more revenue. The nearly $240 billion in oil and gas export earnings this year would represent a $13 billion increase over 2023. In 2025, the forecast was also raised to $236.5 billion, from $226.2 billion in the previous forecast.

OIL LEAKAGE LOWER

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the global economy would fail without Russia’s oil and gas.

Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Far East, he said Moscow plans to continue pumping gas through Ukraine to the European Union, but that Russia cannot force Kiev to keep the transit agreement that expires at the end of this year.

Russia expects gas output to rise every year until 2030, the cap of current forecasts, but the ministry revised down expectations for both oil production and the total volume of energy exports.

Russia is participating in efforts, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to cut oil production to support the volatile market.

In the updated estimates, Russian oil production is seen falling to 521.3 million tonnes this year from 529.6 million tonnes in 2023 and down 1.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate.

The outlook for oil production in 2025 has been cut, according to the Economy Ministry, with production seen further falling to 518.6 million tonnes, down 11.4 million tonnes from the previous forecast.