Why Ukraine’s F-16s are so controversial

After a long campaign and “hundreds of meetings”, the first batch of F-16s arrived in Ukraine in the summer of 2024. The American-made multirole fighter has a long and proven history of service with dozens of operators. Ukraine has sought F-16s since the beginning of the war, but NATO members had serious concerns about their surrender. Even after the United States gave the green light to European allies to hand over their F-16s, there are still questions about their use.

This article will look at the controversy surrounding the F-16 in Ukraine.

Why this matters

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, the arrival of multi-role aircraft represents a “new chapter” for the Air Force. The versatility of the F-16 opens up tactical and strategic possibilities that the older Soviet aircraft could not exploit. However, F-16 donations come with strings attached. The debate over whether or not to limit where the F-16s can operate could have an enormous influence on the outcome of the conflict.

F-16 Overview

The F-16 is not a new aircraft, its first test flight it took place 50 years ago. The F-16 comes in many variants, with the planes sent to Ukraine part of a mid-life upgrade carried out in the 1990s.

A multirole fighter, the F-16’s main strength is its versatility. It can perform air-to-air and air-to-ground missions. This means the F-16 can intercept and engage enemy aircraft or missiles, support friendly ground units, and attack ground targets. It is very maneuverable and has a good operating range. The F-16 represents a significant upgrade to the Soviet-era aircraft that Ukraine previously relied on.

Donor Countries

The US-made F-16s donated to Ukraine will come from NATO members. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have all pledged their F-16s to Ukraine. Greece recently announced that it will send decommissioned F-16s to the United States for upgrades and future deployment to Ukraine.

Belgium undertook to send 30 F-16s to Ukraine by 2028 but on the condition that they are not flown over the territory of Russia. The Netherlands has committed to sending 24 F-16s without any restrictions on their use, only that they are used legally. Norway undertook to send six F-16s in 2024 and Denmark has promised to send 19 F-16s to Ukraine. All four countries are in the process of phasing out the F-16 in favor of it F-35 Lightning II.

Concerns

There are two major concerns about donating F-16s to Ukraine. The first is that if they are used on Russian territory, the conflict will escalate. Western weapons attacking Russian territory could be interpreted as an act of war. Moreover, ground-based aircraft are a tempting target for the Russians, but they cannot launch combat missions into a neighboring country.

The second concern among donors is that donating F-16s will weaken their own defensive capabilities. Some Danes have expressed concern that the F-16 donation will leave defensive gaps at home, as most F-35 orders from Copenhagen are still pending. Domestic politics is always a factor in foreign policy as the right grows in some countries and so does skepticism about the conflict. In times of economic uncertainty, supporting a foreign country’s war effort can be a tough sell for politicians at home.

limitation

The limiting factors are not only related to strategic or political concerns, because it is not just about sending planes to Ukraine. Ukraine has a limited number of pilots used to flying Soviet-era aircraft. It can take years of training to become effective in combat with the F-16, which the Kiev simply does not have. As such, its pilots must master it in months, not years, and there are only limited spots in training facilities around the world. The pilot pipeline is simply not large enough and Ukraine risks losing top pilots every day. Andrii “Juice” Pilshchykov died in an accident in August 2023. In addition, modern aircraft have a long logistics queue. It’s not just pilots, maintenance crews also need extensive training.

Ukraine wants at least 130 F-16s and pilot and crew training. NATO’s commitments and training programs fall short of this goal. As important as hardware is, replacing a lost F-16 is much easier than replacing an experienced pilot lost in combat. Ukraine lost one of its few F-16s in August 2024 and one of its best aviators in process. The late col. Alexei “Moonfish” Mes was a leading voice in Ukraine’s lobbying efforts for the F-16 in the United States.

Future implications

Currently, there are not enough F-16s in Ukraine to have a significant impact on the war. However, the great versatility of the aircraft offers operational opportunities in the future. The F-16 can be equipped with many different equipment, including long-range cruise missiles. If equipped with an AGM-158 JASSM (Common Air-to-Surface Missile), Ukrainian F-16s could hit key ground targets over 300 miles away. This would require authorization to use them inside Russia, but if given the go-ahead, the mere threat of a JASSM strike would force Russia to redeploy assets out of range.

Ukraine would have several options to take the initiative. The ongoing incursion at Kursk demonstrates the value of a surprise offensive. Modern Western hardware could tip the scales back in Kiev’s favor if deployed in sufficient numbers. The United States is currently working on another aid package for Ukraine, and the JASSMs could be part of it.

Conclusion

The decision to send F-16s to Ukraine was not taken lightly. Only a handful are currently serving in Ukraine, so their impact on the conflict is limited. With logistical and political questions still to be answered, it remains to be seen whether they will arrive in time and in sufficient numbers to make a difference.

To fully utilize the F-16, NATO must expand the pilot pipeline and remove any restrictions on their use. If the US agrees to send long-range munitions and donor countries provide more aircraft and training, the F-16 could play a key role in a favorable outcome for Kiev. However, if their numbers remain limited and their use limited to purely defensive operations, it will be a lost opportunity.

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