Despite Kamala Harris’ momentum, the 2024 race remains a heat

Still, in a reminder of how volatile American elections can be, a recently released New York Times/Siena College poll found Trump with a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters. The poll could indicate that Harris’ momentum has stalled, or it could be an anomaly. New polls in the coming days will tell more, as will Tuesday’s presidential debate.

What is certain is that many of the complexities of the 2024 contest never went away after Biden exited the race. Here’s why the contest remains a nail-biter at this late stage.

A race within the margin of error

Despite a series of polls showing Harris with leads in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, the leads are generally in the single digits and within the margin of error.

The latest national Times poll showed Trump with 48 percent support among likely voters, with Harris at 47 percent.

The result is unchanged from a national Times poll conducted in July.

A few important numbers stand out in the latest Times survey.

Harris saw the majority of support among voters under 45. She performed best among voters aged 30 to 44, winning this group by nine points (51% to 42%). Meanwhile, Trump led among Gen Xers and voters 65 and older by a 10-point margin.

For Harris, turnout among younger voters will be key as he tries to win traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and hold Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada. Harris’ appeal with young voters is a major reason he was able to put North Carolina back in play for Democrats, a far cry from three months ago when Biden fought there.

In the Times poll, Harris also had a 10-point lead (52% to 42%) with suburban voters, a significant showing of support that could make a huge difference if she extends that lead over her rival GOP.

Despite Trump’s lead in the Times poll, the former president’s troubles in the suburbs are perhaps one of the biggest threats to his campaign, as they would likely diminish his ability to win in a critical state like Pennsylvania if Harris wins more much power closer to the election.

Voters want to know more about Harris

The presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia will likely be Harris’ most critical opportunity to reach voters who remain on the fence about who they will support at the top of the ticket.

In the Times poll, 27 percent of likely voters said they wanted to “learn more” about Harris. Meanwhile, only 9 percent of likely voters expressed a similar sentiment about Trump.

For voters who indicated they wanted to know more about Harris, nearly 7 in 10 said they wanted to hear more about the vice president’s policies and plans. Another 10 percent said they wanted to learn “everything” about Harris.

So, in effect, Trump boasts a slim lead against a candidate who remains an empty slate for a significant portion of the electorate.

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago was a first step for Harris out of the shadows and onto the national stage. But the debate in Philadelphia will give him time to articulate his view on what remains the biggest issue of the election: the economy.

In the latest Times poll, Trump had a 13-point lead (55% to 42%) over Harris on who would be better equipped to handle the economy.

Trump, who has relentlessly criticized Democrats on the issue, has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.

Harris has begun to chip away at Trump’s lead on the issue in recent weeks, which has pursued Biden as the running mate. Other polls, including a Financial Times-Michigan Ross poll released last month, actually showed Harris holding a one-point lead (42 percent to 41 percent) over Trump on economic issues among registered voters.

This close result is just another reflection of the competitive nature of the race, a dynamic that will likely remain the same through November.