Elon Musk says the first flight to Mars will take place in two years

Musk, who founded SpaceX in 2002, said he expects flight rates to “exponentially increase” if both dates are met. The ultimate goal, he said, would be to build a “self-sustaining city in about 20 years.”

Musk’s latest remarks mark a slight shift from the timeline he originally shared in April.

“Ship will be on Mars in 5 years,” Musk wrote in an X post on March 15. Musk did not specify at the time whether the flight would be manned or unmanned.

To be sure, Musk’s plans to colonize Mars have long been a moving target. The mercurial billionaire repeatedly announced, then changed the target dates.

In June 2016, Musk told attendees at Vox’s Code Conference that he plans to send astronauts to Mars in 2024.

“If things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025,” Musk said at the time.

Then in 2020, Musk said in an interview with Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner that he believed humans could reach Mars in 2026.

“If we’re lucky, maybe four years,” Musk told Döpfner, adding that he hopes to send an “unmanned vehicle there in two years.”

But in March 2022, Musk said he expected humans to land on Mars in 2029.

“If we don’t improve our rate of progress, I will definitely be dead before I leave,” Musk told attendees at the Satellite 2020 conference in March 2020.

SpaceX representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.