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WTI up near $68.00 on potential hurricane approaching US Gulf Coast

  • The WTI price is gaining ground due to the potential approach of a hurricane to the US Gulf Coast.
  • The severe weather is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the northwest US Gulf Coast.
  • Increasing odds of a Fed rate cut in September is providing support for oil prices.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is recovering its recent losses in the previous session, trading around $68.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. The increase in the price of crude oil is attributed to the potential approach of a hurricane to the US Gulf Coast.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Sunday that severe weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the northwestern US Gulf Coast. This region accounts for about 60% of US refining capacity, according to Reuters.

Reuters also quoted ANZ analysts as noting that “Crude oil posted its biggest weekly drop in 11 months amid a gloomy economic backdrop. Weak U.S. jobs data on Friday raised concerns that demand for oil in the world’s biggest consumer is falling.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls (NFP) added 142,000 jobs in August, below the forecast of 160,000, but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000.

Weak US jobs data raised the likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting. Lower interest rates generally boost oil demand by boosting economic growth and making oil cheaper for holders of non-dollar currencies.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.

Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Fed officials are beginning to align with broader market sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the U.S. central bank is imminent, according to CNBC.

FXStreet’s FedTracker, which uses a custom AI model to rate Fed officials’ speeches on a scale of 0 to 10, rated Goolsbee’s comments as upbeat, assigning them a score of 3.2.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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