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XAG/USD holds close to $28 with US inflation in focus

  • Silver is nearing $28.00 as investors shift focus to August US inflation data.
  • Higher US dollar and bond yields limit silver price gains.
  • The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates this month.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) rises above $28.00 in the European session on Monday. The white metal is trading in a tight range, with the downside remaining supported near $27.70. Silver’s gains remain limited as the US dollar (USD) and bond yields move strongly as traders cut back on bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to start easing policy aggressively this month.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against six major currencies, is rising to near 101.70. US 10-year Treasury yields rise to 3.75%. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets limit Silver’s upside, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets such as silver.

The US dollar and bond yields strengthened after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which indicated that the current health of the labor market is not as bad as it appeared from official employment data for July.

Meanwhile, investors are shifting their focus to the United States (US) consumer price index (CPI) data for August due out on Wednesday. The consumer inflation report is expected to show that on a monthly basis, both headline CPI and core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, are expected to have risen steadily by 0.2%. Annual CPI is expected to have decelerated sharply to 2.6% from 2.9% in July.

Silver Technical Analysis

The price of silver is trading in a Channel formation on a daily time frame that is slightly downward sloping. The asset is recovering sharply and trying to break above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around $28.68.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting consolidation ahead.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the economies of the US, China and India can also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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