Inflation in Argentina was at a 31-month low of 3.9% in August By Reuters

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate is expected to have fallen to 3.9 percent in August, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Monday, the lowest since the start of 2022, though just below the 4% recorded in the previous month. .

The rate would be a sign of progress for the government of libertarian President Javier Milea, which has focused on taming runaway prices, although the marginal extent of the slowdown reflects how that is becoming increasingly difficult.

Analysts agree that an increase in consumer prices in the South American country last month was likely driven by higher costs of services and transportation, according to the survey that polled 24 local and foreign analysts.

“Regulated prices pushed the inflation index up again,” Fundacion Libertad y Progreso (LyP) said in a report, citing utility costs for electricity and gas, along with public transport costs.

Projections for inflation last month ranged from a low of 3.4 percent to a high of 4.4 percent, the survey found, with both a median estimate and a median estimate of 3.9 percent.

Since the inauguration of right-wing economist Mila in December, inflation has fallen steadily from 25.5% that month to 4.2% in May, 4.6% in June and 4.0% in July, although some economists say the process seems to have stalled.

“The slowdown from the start of the year is starting to compound,” said consultancy EcoGo. “With core inflation ‘stagnant’ at around 4% since May, August does not seem to have been able to break that trend.”

September, however, may offer some good news on the inflation front after the government announced late last month that it would cut the import and goods tax to 7.5 percent from 17.5 percent previously, economists note.

“We expect the tax cut to have an impact in September on the prices of imported goods and, to a lesser extent, on services that use imported inputs,” LyP director Aldo Abram said.

Argentina’s national statistics agency INDEC will release August inflation data on Wednesday.