Could Nvidia stock double in the next year?

Nvidia (NVDA 3.54%) the stock has been on an unprecedented run for a company of its size. In 2023, the stock is up nearly 240%. While 2024 wasn’t nearly as good, it was still impressive, with Nvidia stock up about 108% year to date.

Investors have been a little underwhelmed by Nvidia’s performance over the past two years, and the status quo may lead some to believe that Nvidia could double down again in the following year. Is this possible?

AI drives demand for Nvidia GPUs

Nvidia’s growth has been directly linked to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are essential in training AI models because they can process multiple calculations in parallel. Nvidia’s products are almost undisputed as the best choice in the space, so it has naturally become the top choice for any company looking to build their AI computing infrastructure. The key here is that these companies aren’t buying one or two GPUs; they connect thousands of these devices to create a machine that can quickly process incredible amounts of information.

As a result of this demand, Nvidia’s sales have soared.

NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

In the second quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended July 28), its revenue rose 122% year over year to $30 billion. Its data center business had its best quarter yet, with revenue up 154% year over year to $26.3 billion. One thing to note here is that it also grew by 16% quarter-over-quarter, which shows that demand continues to grow.

The show doesn’t go away either. In Q3, management expects revenue of $32.5 billion.

Clearly, Nvidia’s business is crushing it, and demand is still growing. But is this enough to double the stock?

Nvidia already has a lot of success at the stock price

For Nvidia stock to double, the company would need to be worth $5.2 trillion. For context, the largest company in the world is Applewhich is worth less than $3.4 trillion.

This is a tall order in just one year and is unlikely to be accomplished in that time.

Why? Because all of Nvidia’s growth is already baked into the stock. If you take a look at Nvidia’s valuation metrics, you can calculate that Wall Street has already seen roughly 33% earnings growth between now and the end of its fiscal year.

NVDA Data ON Report by YCharts

While Nvidia’s earnings per share (EPS) rose 168% in Q2, that number is about to face tough comparisons now that it overlaps some of the strong quarters of fiscal 2024. Additionally, a price of 50 times trailing earnings and 37 times forward earnings is quite expensive.

It’s more common for a company with a strong pedigree like Nvidia to trade for around 30 times forward earnings. So not only does Nvidia stock have a ways to go before it gets back to that point, but it would also need to double its earnings for the stock to double.

When could that be?

At Nvidia’s current stock price, it would need its forward EPS forecasts to be $7.08 to trade at 15 times forward earnings. Since we set the underlying valuation at 30 times forward earnings, this would double the share price.

Finding extended earnings forecasts is not easy, and only one Wall Street analyst provides EPS projections for fiscal 2028 (ending January 2028). This analyst sees EPS of $5.45, which is still some distance from the required $7.08.

If it continues on this growth trajectory, Nvidia will hit the mark around fiscal 2029, which is about four and a half years away. While not a double in one year, that performance would still beat the broader market, which tends to double roughly every seven years.

Nvidia isn’t doubling anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a solid investment now.