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XAG/USD remains below $28.50 on market caution, looming US CPI

  • Silver inches lower as traders exercise caution ahead of the release of US inflation data on Wednesday.
  • Non-yielding silver faces minor challenges due to uncertainty over the extent of a Fed rate cut.
  • The CME FedWatch tool suggests the probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell slightly to 29.0%.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) fell to near $28.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders are taking a cautious approach ahead of the US inflation report scheduled for release on Wednesday for information on the potential extent of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut in September. Changes in interest rates tend to impact non-yielding assets such as silver.

Last week, US labor force data raised uncertainty about the extent of a Fed interest rate cut. United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) added 142,000 jobs in August, below the forecast of 160,000, but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised figure of 89,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent, as expected, down from 4.3 percent the previous month.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell slightly to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Fed officials are beginning to align with broader market sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the U.S. central bank is imminent, according to CNBC. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which uses a custom AI model to rate Fed officials’ speeches on a scale of 0 to 10, rated Goolsbee’s comments as upbeat, assigning them a score of 3.2.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the economies of the US, China and India can also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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