EUR little changed that day – Scotiabank

EURUSD is almost unchanged, notes Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.

US event risk and the ECB’s boring interest rate

“Spot levels held close to yesterday’s closing rate, with no incentive to widen ranges ahead of risks from Thursday’s US and ECB events. Germany published final CPI data for August, which were unchanged from preliminary data (1.9% Y/Y). A 25bp cut is widely expected on Thursday and is fully priced in. President Lagarde may be reluctant to offer much on the prospects for further easing at this time.”

“Negative daily and weekly price signals in EURUSD over the past two weeks have negated the positive undertone in sight, but with trend momentum signals until it tilts bullish, these developments have not triggered any significant EUR reversal – at least not yet . “

“This is clearly a risk, but for now the EUR is well supported in the 1.10s near the 1.1040 level, which is the 38.2% retracement of the August rally. A sharper push below here targets the mid/upper 1.09s. Resistance is 1.1075/85.”