The presidential debate is important — but not more than that

Tonight, Americans across the country will be glued to their screens watching Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump square off in their first debate.

That’s to be expected. This is an important and divisive presidential election. Current polls and betting markets show that the outcome is basically a coin toss at this point. But tonight’s debate could change everything.

Indeed, the Americans should watch the upcoming presidential debate.

But don’t expect to discover stock market insights. You won’t find any – or a good one, at least.

Actually, here’s a funny truth: The stock market doesn’t really care who’s president.

Stocks will rise regardless of the president

Republican, Democrat, progressive, conservative—the political views of American presidents didn’t seem to matter for action in the 1980s.

Stocks continue to rise.

We’re about three years and eight months into President Joe Biden’s presidency. during that time S&P 500 increased by about 50%.

Guess how much the S&P rose in the first three years and eight months of Donald Trump’s presidency; about 50%.

Coincidence? Maybe not.

Because in the first three years and eight months of Barack Obama’s tenure, the S&P 500 is up… wait for it… about 50%.

And indeed, in the first three years and eight months of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the S&P 500 rose—you guessed it—about 50%.

Clearly, there is a pattern here.

Stocks tend to rise by about 50% in the first three years and eight months of a presidency — regardless of political affiliation.

So, like many Americans, I will be watching tonight’s presidential debate. But I won’t be watching it to determine where stocks will go over the next four years.

Instead, I will watch another event for that.