Market attention turns to August US inflation data

Inflation measures the increase in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change month-on-month (month-on-month) and year-on-year (YoY). Core inflation excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, which can fluctuate due to geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure that economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change from month to month (month-to-month) and year-to-year (year-to-year). Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks because it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When core CPI rises above 2%, higher interest rates usually result, and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Because higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country increases the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat higher inflation, which attracts more global capital inflows from investors looking for a profitable place to park their money.

Previously, gold was the asset investors turned to during periods of high inflation because it held its value, and while investors will often buy gold for its safe haven properties during periods of extreme market turbulence, this is not the case with most of the time. . This is because when inflation is high, central banks will raise interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold versus an interest-bearing asset or putting money in a cash deposit account. On the other hand, lower inflation tends to be positive for gold as it lowers interest rates, making the shiny metal a more viable investment alternative.